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Alex Preston v Matt Bevan (Tue 15 May 2018)

Match won by Alex Preston. Result: 15-10,15-12,15-6.

Starting level for Alex Preston: 6,074, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matt Bevan: 2,431, level confidence: 69%.
Alex Preston to win as he is currently playing 150% better than Matt Bevan.

Alex Preston won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Preston played 61% better than Matt Bevan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alex Preston was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,742 and 6,074 without affecting his level.

In this case, Alex Preston played at level 4,394 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alex Preston would normally have been playing at level 4,942 (based on typical behaviour), Matt Bevan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Preston changes to 0% and Matt Bevan changes to +7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Preston becomes 0% and for Matt Bevan becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Alex Preston is 0% and for Matt Bevan is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Preston: 86%, Matt Bevan: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Preston: 69%, Matt Bevan: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Preston: 6,065, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Matt Bevan: 2,488, level confidence: 67%.