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Rex Hedrick v Evan Williams (Sat 05 May 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-6,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 30,338, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Evan Williams: 21,972, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Evan Williams.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 106% better than Evan Williams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of 37,079 and Evan Williams at a level of 17,978. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +16% and Evan Williams changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +3.7% and for Evan Williams becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Act Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 91%, Evan Williams: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 74%, Evan Williams: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 31,212, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Evan Williams: 21,216, level confidence: 69%.