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Rex Hedrick v Luke Jones (Thu 03 May 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 29,998, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Luke Jones: 11,990, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 150% better than Luke Jones.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 106% better than Luke Jones in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rex Hedrick was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,843 and 29,998 without affecting his level.

In this case, Rex Hedrick played at level 24,729 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Luke Jones is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 84%, Luke Jones: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 76%, Luke Jones: 80%.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 29,998, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Luke Jones: 11,990, level confidence: 80%.