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Borja Golan v Simon Rösner (Fri 04 May 2018)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 9-11,11-7,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 41,661, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Simon Rösner: 51,676, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Borja Golan.

Borja Golan won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 30% better than Simon Rösner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Borja Golan actually played at a level of 52,893 and Simon Rösner at a level of 40,703. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to +24% and Simon Rösner changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes +4.8% and for Simon Rösner becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 79%, Simon Rösner: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 62%, Simon Rösner: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Borja Golan: 43,493, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Simon Rösner: 50,088, level confidence: 74%.