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James Willstrop v Borja Golan (Tue 01 May 2018)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 7-11,11-8,7-11,4-11.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 50,762, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Borja Golan: 39,650, level confidence: 66%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Borja Golan.

Borja Golan won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 30% better than James Willstrop in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Borja Golan actually played at a level of 51,232 and James Willstrop at a level of 39,287. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to +25% and James Willstrop changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes +5.1% and for James Willstrop becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 81%, James Willstrop: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 63%, James Willstrop: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 48,607, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Borja Golan: 41,516, level confidence: 63%.