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Borja Golan v Kristian Frost Olesen (Sun 29 Apr 2018)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 38,779, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Kristian Frost Olesen: 27,251, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Kristian Frost Olesen.

Borja Golan won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 94% better than Kristian Frost Olesen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Borja Golan actually played at a level of 45,292 and Kristian Frost Olesen at a level of 23,332. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to +14% and Kristian Frost Olesen changes to -9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes +3.1% and for Kristian Frost Olesen becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 77%, Kristian Frost Olesen: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 66%, Kristian Frost Olesen: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Borja Golan: 39,738, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Kristian Frost Olesen: 26,739, level confidence: 79%.