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David Gibson v Steven Davies (Mon 30 Apr 2018)

Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 9-15,10-15,7-15.

Starting level for David Gibson: 2,971, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Steven Davies: 7,978, level confidence: 62%.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 169% better than David Gibson.

Steven Davies won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Davies played 73% better than David Gibson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Steven Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,715 and 7,978 without affecting his level.

In this case, Steven Davies played at level 5,699 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Steven Davies would normally have been playing at level 6,315 (based on typical behaviour), David Gibson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Davies changes to 0% and David Gibson changes to +5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Davies becomes 0% and for David Gibson becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Bedfordshire League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Steven Davies is 0% and for David Gibson is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 79%, David Gibson: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 63%, David Gibson: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Gibson: 3,032, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Steven Davies: 7,966, level confidence: 63%.