Keith Timms v Paul Broadberry (Sat 28 Apr 2018)
Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-6.
Starting level for
Keith Timms:
8,779, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Paul Broadberry:
8,461, level confidence: 65%.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Paul Broadberry.
Keith Timms won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played
120% better than Paul Broadberry in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Timms actually played at a level of
12,783 and Paul Broadberry at a level of
5,811. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to +44% and Paul Broadberry changes to -45%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes +10.8% and for Paul Broadberry becomes -10.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Keith Timms is limited to +8.3% and Paul Broadberry is limited to -8.4% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 81%, Paul Broadberry: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 55%, Paul Broadberry: 55%.
Final level for Keith Timms:
9,509, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Paul Broadberry:
7,804, level confidence: 55%.