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Jon Davies v Paul Stroud (Sat 21 Apr 2018)

Match won by Paul Stroud. Result: 7-11,6-11,9-11.

Starting level for Jon Davies: 7,416, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Stroud: 7,265, level confidence: 66%.
Jon Davies to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Paul Stroud.

Paul Stroud won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Stroud played 52% better than Jon Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Stroud actually played at a level of 9,039 and Jon Davies at a level of 5,960. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Stroud changes to +24% and Jon Davies changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Stroud becomes +6.8% and for Jon Davies becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jon Davies is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Stroud: 81%, Jon Davies: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Stroud: 65%, Jon Davies: 71%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jon Davies: 7,214, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Paul Stroud: 7,761, level confidence: 65%.