Andrew Neal v Marcus Hayes (Sat 21 Apr 2018)
Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 3-11,5-11,2-11.
Starting level for
Andrew Neal:
6,824, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
8,297, level confidence: 62%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Andrew Neal.
Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played
230% better than Andrew Neal in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of
13,669 and Andrew Neal at a level of
4,142. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 65% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +57% and Andrew Neal changes to -45%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +13.4% and for Andrew Neal becomes -12%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Marcus Hayes is limited to +8.5% and Andrew Neal is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 79%, Andrew Neal: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 48%, Andrew Neal: 52%.
Final level for Andrew Neal:
6,499, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,999, level confidence: 48%.