SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Alexis Cole v Keith Timms (Sat 21 Apr 2018)

Match won by Alexis Cole. Result: 12-10,11-8,11-3.

Starting level for Alexis Cole: 8,553, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keith Timms: 9,188, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Alexis Cole.

Alexis Cole won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alexis Cole played 62% better than Keith Timms in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alexis Cole actually played at a level of 11,280 and Keith Timms at a level of 6,967. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alexis Cole changes to +31% and Keith Timms changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alexis Cole becomes +8% and for Keith Timms becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Keith Timms is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alexis Cole: 85%, Keith Timms: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alexis Cole: 65%, Keith Timms: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alexis Cole: 9,235, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Keith Timms: 8,897, level confidence: 70%.