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Paul Stroud v Ian Adamson (Sat 21 Apr 2018)

Match won by Paul Stroud. Result: 11-4,11-2,11-4.

Starting level for Paul Stroud: 6,979, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Ian Adamson: 3,032, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Paul Stroud to win as he is currently playing 130% better than Ian Adamson.

Paul Stroud won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Stroud played 230% better than Ian Adamson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Stroud actually played at a level of 8,356 and Ian Adamson at a level of 2,532. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Stroud changes to +13% and Ian Adamson changes to -9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Stroud becomes +4.1% and for Ian Adamson becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Stroud: 79%, Ian Adamson: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Stroud: 66%, Ian Adamson: 76%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Stroud: 7,265, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Ian Adamson: 2,971, level confidence: 76%.