Alex Preston v Graham Lind (Sat 21 Apr 2018)
Match won by Alex Preston. Result: 7-11,11-3,11-6,11-9.
Starting level for
Alex Preston:
6,201, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Graham Lind:
3,619, level confidence: 64%.
Alex Preston to win as he is currently playing
71% better than Graham Lind.
Alex Preston won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Preston played
29% better than Graham Lind in this match.
As Alex Preston has played below his allowed range at 4,963, his level reduction is 6.1% before damping. On the assumption that Alex Preston would normally have been playing at level 5,714 (based on typical behaviour), Graham Lind played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 7.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Preston changes to -4% and Graham Lind changes to +7.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Preston becomes -2% and for Graham Lind becomes +3.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Preston: 85%, Graham Lind: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Preston: 74%, Graham Lind: 69%.
Final level for Alex Preston:
6,081, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Graham Lind:
3,744, level confidence: 69%.