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Keith Timms v Mike Martin (Sat 21 Apr 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 9,107, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Martin: 3,396, level confidence: 60%.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 168% better than Mike Martin.

Keith Timms won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 94% better than Mike Martin in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Keith Timms was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,713 and 9,107 without affecting his level.

In this case, Keith Timms played at level 6,896 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 7,213 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Martin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to 0% and Mike Martin changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes 0% and for Mike Martin becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 93%, Mike Martin: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 79%, Mike Martin: 66%.

Final level for Keith Timms: 9,107, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mike Martin: 3,457, level confidence: 66%.