Neil Staunton v Marcus Hayes (Fri 20 Apr 2018)
Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 8-11,9-11,11-5,11-3,7-11.
Starting level for
Neil Staunton:
6,414, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
8,540, level confidence: 50%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing
33% better than Neil Staunton.
Marcus Hayes won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played
5% better than Neil Staunton in this match.
As Marcus Hayes has played below his allowed range at 7,377, his level reduction is 9.8% before damping. On the assumption that Marcus Hayes would normally have been playing at level 8,316 (based on typical behaviour), Neil Staunton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.4% and 9.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to -8.4% and Neil Staunton changes to +6.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes -2.9% and for Neil Staunton becomes +2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 70%, Neil Staunton: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 63%, Neil Staunton: 77%.
Final level for Neil Staunton:
6,579, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
8,298, level confidence: 63%.