Keith Moran v Keith Timms (Fri 20 Apr 2018)
Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 8-11,12-14,11-7,3-11.
Starting level for
Keith Moran:
7,652, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for
Keith Timms:
9,037, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing
18% better than Keith Moran.
Keith Timms won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played
25% better than Keith Moran in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Timms actually played at a level of
9,315 and Keith Moran at a level of
7,423. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to +1.5% and Keith Moran changes to -2.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes +0.8% and for Keith Moran becomes -1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 90%, Keith Moran: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 87%, Keith Moran: 64%.
Final level for Keith Moran:
7,539, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Keith Timms:
9,107, level confidence: 87%.