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Keith Moran v Keith Timms (Fri 20 Apr 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 8-11,12-14,11-7,3-11.

Starting level for Keith Moran: 7,652, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Keith Timms: 9,037, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Keith Moran.

Keith Timms won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 25% better than Keith Moran in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Timms actually played at a level of 9,315 and Keith Moran at a level of 7,423. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to +1.5% and Keith Moran changes to -2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes +0.8% and for Keith Moran becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 90%, Keith Moran: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 87%, Keith Moran: 64%.

Final level for Keith Moran: 7,539, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Keith Timms: 9,107, level confidence: 87%.