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Steven Davies v Ivan Schimanski (Mon 23 Apr 2018)

Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 15-12,15-9,15-6.

Starting level for Steven Davies: 7,993, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Ivan Schimanski: 2,955, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 170% better than Ivan Schimanski.

Steven Davies won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Davies played 67% better than Ivan Schimanski in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Steven Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,694 and 7,993 without affecting his level.

In this case, Steven Davies played at level 5,574 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Steven Davies would normally have been playing at level 6,309 (based on typical behaviour), Ivan Schimanski played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Davies changes to 0% and Ivan Schimanski changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Davies becomes 0% and for Ivan Schimanski becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Bedfordshire League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Steven Davies is 0% and for Ivan Schimanski is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 81%, Ivan Schimanski: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 64%, Ivan Schimanski: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Davies: 7,981, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Ivan Schimanski: 3,023, level confidence: 69%.