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Owen Ledger v Steven Davies (Mon 16 Apr 2018)

Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 15-6,8-15,8-15,10-15.

Starting level for Owen Ledger: 4,370, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steven Davies: 8,128, level confidence: 69%.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Owen Ledger.

Steven Davies won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Davies played 25% better than Owen Ledger in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Steven Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,399 and 8,128 without affecting his level.

As Steven Davies has played below his allowed range at 5,908, his level reduction is 8.3% before damping. On the assumption that Steven Davies would normally have been playing at level 7,308 (based on typical behaviour), Owen Ledger played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Davies changes to -6% and Owen Ledger changes to +9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Davies becomes -2.4% and for Owen Ledger becomes +3.6%.

Given Steven Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Bedfordshire League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Steven Davies is -1.6% and for Owen Ledger is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 83%, Owen Ledger: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 68%, Owen Ledger: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Owen Ledger: 4,483, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Steven Davies: 7,990, level confidence: 68%.