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Paul Stroud v Oliver Wood (Tue 24 Apr 2018)

Match won by Paul Stroud. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-1.

Starting level for Paul Stroud: 7,575, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Oliver Wood: 6,030, level confidence: 66%.
Paul Stroud to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Oliver Wood.

Paul Stroud won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Stroud played 106% better than Oliver Wood in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Stroud actually played at a level of 9,706 and Oliver Wood at a level of 4,706. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Stroud changes to +25% and Oliver Wood changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Stroud becomes +6.9% and for Oliver Wood becomes -7.3%.

Given Paul Stroud's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.8% has been applied to his level change.

Given Oliver Wood's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Paul Stroud is +4.7% and for Oliver Wood is -5.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Stroud: 81%, Oliver Wood: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Stroud: 64%, Oliver Wood: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Stroud: 7,920, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Oliver Wood: 5,734, level confidence: 64%.