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Keith Timms v Anthony Rogal (Wed 18 Apr 2018)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 6-11,11-8,5-11,12-14.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 9,183, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 9,424, level confidence: 66%.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Keith Timms.

Anthony Rogal won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 26% better than Keith Timms in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Rogal actually played at a level of 10,461 and Keith Timms at a level of 8,273. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to +10.9% and Keith Timms changes to -8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes +3.4% and for Keith Timms becomes -2.9%.

Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Anthony Rogal is +2.2% and for Keith Timms is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 81%, Keith Timms: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 73%, Keith Timms: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Timms: 9,037, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal: 9,657, level confidence: 73%.