Steve Avil v Barrie McLelland (Fri 13 Apr 2018)
Match won by Steve Avil. Result: 9-10,9-3,10-8,9-1.
Starting level for
Steve Avil:
2,143, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Barrie McLelland:
1,893, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Steve Avil to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Barrie McLelland.
Steve Avil won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Avil played
27% better than Barrie McLelland in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Avil actually played at a level of
2,273 and Barrie McLelland at a level of
1,785. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Avil changes to +5.7% and Barrie McLelland changes to -4.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Avil becomes +3.2% and for Barrie McLelland becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Steve Avil is +2.4% and for Barrie McLelland is -2.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Avil: 80%, Barrie McLelland: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Avil: 76%, Barrie McLelland: 84%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Steve Avil:
2,192, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Barrie McLelland:
1,849, level confidence: 84%.