Andrew Hopwood v Paul Wallace (Sat 24 Mar 2018)
Match won by Paul Wallace. Result: 10-12,6-11,4-11.
Starting level for
Andrew Hopwood:
4,887, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for
Paul Wallace:
5,671, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Paul Wallace to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Andrew Hopwood.
Paul Wallace won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Wallace played
70% better than Andrew Hopwood in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Wallace actually played at a level of
6,864 and Andrew Hopwood at a level of
4,038. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Wallace changes to +14% and Andrew Hopwood changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Wallace becomes +4.6% and for Andrew Hopwood becomes -6.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Masters 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andrew Hopwood is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Andrew Hopwood has already dropped 10.3% since starting this event at level 5388. The amount a player can drop in a single event is limited to 11.1% so Andrew Hopwood's drop for this match has been limited to 1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Wallace: 88%, Andrew Hopwood: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Wallace: 73%, Andrew Hopwood: 61%.
Final level for Andrew Hopwood:
4,849, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Paul Wallace:
5,930, level confidence: 73%.