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Andrew Hopwood v Paul Wallace (Sat 24 Mar 2018)

Match won by Paul Wallace. Result: 10-12,6-11,4-11.

Starting level for Andrew Hopwood: 4,887, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Paul Wallace: 5,671, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Paul Wallace to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Andrew Hopwood.

Paul Wallace won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Wallace played 70% better than Andrew Hopwood in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Wallace actually played at a level of 6,864 and Andrew Hopwood at a level of 4,038. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Wallace changes to +14% and Andrew Hopwood changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Wallace becomes +4.6% and for Andrew Hopwood becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Masters 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andrew Hopwood is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Andrew Hopwood has already dropped 10.3% since starting this event at level 5388. The amount a player can drop in a single event is limited to 11.1% so Andrew Hopwood's drop for this match has been limited to 1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Wallace: 88%, Andrew Hopwood: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Wallace: 73%, Andrew Hopwood: 61%.

Final level for Andrew Hopwood: 4,849, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Paul Wallace: 5,930, level confidence: 73%.