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Alan Megaw v Paul Wallace (Sat 24 Mar 2018)

Match won by Paul Wallace. Result: 4-11,5-11,9-11.

Starting level for Alan Megaw: 3,618, level confidence: 12%.
Starting level for Paul Wallace: 5,634, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Paul Wallace to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Alan Megaw.

Paul Wallace won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Wallace played 83% better than Alan Megaw in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Wallace actually played at a level of 6,113 and Alan Megaw at a level of 3,334. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Wallace changes to +1.1% and Alan Megaw changes to -6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Wallace becomes +0.7% and for Alan Megaw becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Masters 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Wallace: 84%, Alan Megaw: 34%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Wallace: 77%, Alan Megaw: 32%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Megaw: 3,546, level confidence: 32%.
Final level for Paul Wallace: 5,671, level confidence: 77%.