SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Laurence Green v Keith Timms (Mon 09 Apr 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 11-9,14-16,11-7,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Laurence Green: 7,563, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Keith Timms: 9,474, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Laurence Green.

Keith Timms won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 10% better than Laurence Green in this match.

As Keith Timms has played below his allowed range at 8,714, his level reduction is 4.7% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 9,317 (based on typical behaviour), Laurence Green played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 5.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to -2.9% and Laurence Green changes to +5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes -1.4% and for Laurence Green becomes +2.2%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Given Laurence Green's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is -0.9% and for Laurence Green is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 87%, Laurence Green: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 82%, Laurence Green: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Laurence Green: 7,693, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Keith Timms: 9,411, level confidence: 82%.