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Alan Clyne v Rex Hedrick (Thu 05 Apr 2018)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 36,294, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 31,341, level confidence: 68%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Rex Hedrick.

Alan Clyne won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 94% better than Rex Hedrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 46,990 and Rex Hedrick at a level of 24,207. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +26% and Rex Hedrick changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +5.2% and for Rex Hedrick becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Commonwealth Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rex Hedrick is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 85%, Rex Hedrick: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 65%, Rex Hedrick: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 37,900, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick: 29,940, level confidence: 64%.