Rex Hedrick v Sunil Seth (Wed 04 Apr 2018)
Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-4,11-2,11-3.
Starting level for
Rex Hedrick:
30,889, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Sunil Seth:
11,087, level confidence: 24%.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing
179% better than Sunil Seth.
Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played
267% better than Sunil Seth in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of
35,436 and Sunil Seth at a level of
9,664. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.6% and 8.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +3.4% and Sunil Seth changes to -8.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +1.3% and for Sunil Seth becomes -2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Commonwealth Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 78%, Sunil Seth: 49%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 68%, Sunil Seth: 43%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick:
31,285, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Sunil Seth:
10,786, level confidence: 43%.