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Rex Hedrick v Sunil Seth (Wed 04 Apr 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-4,11-2,11-3.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 30,889, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Sunil Seth: 11,087, level confidence: 24%.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 179% better than Sunil Seth.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 267% better than Sunil Seth in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of 35,436 and Sunil Seth at a level of 9,664. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.6% and 8.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +3.4% and Sunil Seth changes to -8.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +1.3% and for Sunil Seth becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Commonwealth Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 78%, Sunil Seth: 49%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 68%, Sunil Seth: 43%.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 31,285, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Sunil Seth: 10,786, level confidence: 43%.