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Christopher Binnie v Saurav Ghosal (Wed 04 Apr 2018)

Match won by Christopher Binnie. Result: 5-11,7-11,11-8,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Christopher Binnie: 24,384, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 42,014, level confidence: 65%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Christopher Binnie.

Christopher Binnie won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Christopher Binnie played 6% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Christopher Binnie actually played at a level of 32,949 and Saurav Ghosal at a level of 31,093. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Christopher Binnie changes to +26% and Saurav Ghosal changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Christopher Binnie becomes +5.6% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Commonwealth Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Christopher Binnie: 66%, Saurav Ghosal: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Christopher Binnie: 49%, Saurav Ghosal: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Christopher Binnie: 25,766, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 40,684, level confidence: 60%.