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Rex Hedrick v Eain Yow Ng (Tue 03 Apr 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 13-11,6-11,8-11,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 30,985, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 30,170, level confidence: 64%.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Rex Hedrick won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 7% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of 31,559 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 29,622. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +1.8% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +0.7% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Commonwealth Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 62%, Eain Yow Ng: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 61%, Eain Yow Ng: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 31,216, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 30,121, level confidence: 78%.