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Stuart Burnett v Alex Preston (Wed 14 Mar 2018)

Match won by Alex Preston. Result: 6-11,11-6,11-4,2-11,8-11.

Starting level for Stuart Burnett: 4,981, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alex Preston: 6,794, level confidence: 55%.
Alex Preston to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Stuart Burnett.

Alex Preston won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Preston played 11% better than Stuart Burnett in this match.

As Alex Preston has played below his allowed range at 5,914, his level reduction is 7.2% before damping. On the assumption that Alex Preston would normally have been playing at level 6,588 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Burnett played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Preston changes to -6.1% and Stuart Burnett changes to +6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Preston becomes -2.5% and for Stuart Burnett becomes +2.7%.

Given Alex Preston's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Buckinghamshire League' so the adjustment for Alex Preston is -1.7% and for Stuart Burnett is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Preston: 74%, Stuart Burnett: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Preston: 67%, Stuart Burnett: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Burnett: 5,073, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Alex Preston: 6,669, level confidence: 67%.