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Keith Timms v Joss Hargrave (Wed 28 Mar 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 11-7,9-11,11-4,13-15,11-7.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 9,504, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joss Hargrave: 6,189, level confidence: 69%.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Joss Hargrave.

Keith Timms won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 14% better than Joss Hargrave in this match.

As Keith Timms has played below his allowed range at 7,693, his level reduction is 9.3% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 8,999 (based on typical behaviour), Joss Hargrave played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.4% and 10.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to -7.3% and Joss Hargrave changes to +10.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes -2.6% and for Joss Hargrave becomes +3.7%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Given Joss Hargrave's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is -1.7% and for Joss Hargrave is +2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 84%, Joss Hargrave: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 72%, Joss Hargrave: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Timms: 9,373, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Joss Hargrave: 6,366, level confidence: 71%.