Stuart Lipscombe v Grant Bryant (Sun 21 Jan 2018)
Match won by Stuart Lipscombe. Result: 3-1.
Starting level for
Stuart Lipscombe:
3,774, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Grant Bryant:
3,388, level confidence: 65%.
Stuart Lipscombe to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Grant Bryant.
Stuart Lipscombe won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Lipscombe actually played at a level of
3,998 and Grant Bryant at a level of
3,198. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 4.5%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe changes to +4.5% and Grant Bryant changes to -4.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe becomes +2.3% and for Grant Bryant becomes -2.4%.
Given Stuart Lipscombe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 85% has been applied to his level change.
Given Grant Bryant's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 75% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe is +0.5% and for Grant Bryant is -0.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Lipscombe: 79%, Grant Bryant: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Lipscombe: 74%, Grant Bryant: 76%.
Final level for Stuart Lipscombe:
3,793, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Grant Bryant:
3,370, level confidence: 76%.