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Nathan Derrick v Steven Davies (Mon 26 Mar 2018)

Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 11-15,15-11,15-5,6-15,13-15.

Starting level for Nathan Derrick: 5,958, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steven Davies: 8,317, level confidence: 57%.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Nathan Derrick.

Steven Davies won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Davies played 8% better than Nathan Derrick in this match.

As Steven Davies has played below his allowed range at 7,030, his level reduction is 9.3% before damping. On the assumption that Steven Davies would normally have been playing at level 8,030 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan Derrick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.8% and 9.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Davies changes to -7.8% and Nathan Derrick changes to +7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Davies becomes -2.8% and for Nathan Derrick becomes +3%.

Given Steven Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nathan Derrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Bedfordshire League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Steven Davies is -1.9% and for Nathan Derrick is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 76%, Nathan Derrick: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 67%, Nathan Derrick: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Derrick: 6,079, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Steven Davies: 8,153, level confidence: 67%.