Rob Britton v Paul Stroud (Tue 27 Mar 2018)
Match won by Paul Stroud. Result: 1-11,3-11,13-15.
Starting level for
Rob Britton:
4,604, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Paul Stroud:
7,025, level confidence: 59%.
Paul Stroud to win as he is currently playing
53% better than Rob Britton.
Paul Stroud won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 118% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Stroud played
118% better than Rob Britton in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Stroud actually played at a level of
8,390 and Rob Britton at a level of
3,855. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Stroud changes to +15% and Rob Britton changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Stroud becomes +4.8% and for Rob Britton becomes -4.6%.
Given Paul Stroud's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.9% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Paul Stroud is +3.3% and for Rob Britton is -3.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Stroud: 77%, Rob Britton: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Stroud: 64%, Rob Britton: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Rob Britton:
4,445, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Paul Stroud:
7,249, level confidence: 64%.