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Paul Stroud v Neil Cross (Sat 24 Mar 2018)

Match won by Neil Cross. Result: 10-12,4-11,11-8,9-11.

Starting level for Paul Stroud: 7,290, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Neil Cross: 6,060, level confidence: 69%.
Paul Stroud to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Neil Cross.

Neil Cross won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Cross played 25% better than Paul Stroud in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Cross actually played at a level of 7,417 and Paul Stroud at a level of 5,956. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Cross changes to +16% and Paul Stroud changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Cross becomes +5.1% and for Paul Stroud becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Masters 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Stroud is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Cross: 83%, Paul Stroud: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Cross: 68%, Paul Stroud: 60%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Stroud: 7,083, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Neil Cross: 6,369, level confidence: 68%.