Alex Preston v Tom Elgood (Sat 24 Mar 2018)
Match won by Tom Elgood. Result: 8-11,10-12,12-10,11-3,7-11.
Starting level for
Alex Preston:
6,284, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tom Elgood:
7,121, level confidence: 58%.
Tom Elgood to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Alex Preston.
Tom Elgood won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Elgood played
7% better than Alex Preston in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Elgood actually played at a level of
6,919 and Alex Preston at a level of
6,468. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Elgood changes to -2.7% and Alex Preston changes to +1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Elgood becomes -1.5% and for Alex Preston becomes +1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Masters 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Elgood: 76%, Alex Preston: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Elgood: 74%, Alex Preston: 89%.
Final level for Alex Preston:
6,351, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Tom Elgood:
7,018, level confidence: 74%.