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Alex Preston v Andy Ewings (Sat 24 Mar 2018)

Match won by Alex Preston. Result: 4-11,17-15,10-12,11-1,14-12.

Starting level for Alex Preston: 6,264, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,605, level confidence: 66%.
Alex Preston to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Andy Ewings.

Alex Preston won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Preston played 10% better than Andy Ewings in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex Preston actually played at a level of 6,213 and Andy Ewings at a level of 5,651. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Preston changes to -0.7% and Andy Ewings changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Preston becomes -0.4% and for Andy Ewings becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Masters 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Preston: 84%, Andy Ewings: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Preston: 83%, Andy Ewings: 80%.

Final level for Alex Preston: 6,239, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Andy Ewings: 5,630, level confidence: 80%.