Alex Preston v Andy Ewings (Sat 24 Mar 2018)
Match won by Alex Preston. Result: 4-11,17-15,10-12,11-1,14-12.
Starting level for
Alex Preston:
6,264, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Andy Ewings:
5,605, level confidence: 66%.
Alex Preston to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Andy Ewings.
Alex Preston won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Preston played
10% better than Andy Ewings in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex Preston actually played at a level of
6,213 and Andy Ewings at a level of
5,651. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Preston changes to -0.7% and Andy Ewings changes to +0.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Preston becomes -0.4% and for Andy Ewings becomes +0.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Masters 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Preston: 84%, Andy Ewings: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Preston: 83%, Andy Ewings: 80%.
Final level for Alex Preston:
6,239, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Andy Ewings:
5,630, level confidence: 80%.