Richard Godfrey v Barrie McLelland (Fri 23 Mar 2018)
Match won by Richard Godfrey. Result: 9-6,5-9,9-4,6-9,9-1.
Starting level for
Richard Godfrey:
2,122, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Barrie McLelland:
1,910, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Richard Godfrey to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Barrie McLelland.
Richard Godfrey won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Godfrey played
12% better than Barrie McLelland in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Godfrey actually played at a level of
2,126 and Barrie McLelland at a level of
1,907. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Godfrey changes to 0% and Barrie McLelland changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Godfrey becomes +0.1% and for Barrie McLelland becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Richard Godfrey is 0% and for Barrie McLelland is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Godfrey: 83%, Barrie McLelland: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Godfrey: 83%, Barrie McLelland: 88%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Richard Godfrey:
2,121, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Barrie McLelland:
1,905, level confidence: 88%.