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Chris Thornley v Stuart Lipscombe (Wed 21 Mar 2018)

Match won by Stuart Lipscombe. Result: 11-15,12-15,15-10,17-15,9-15.

Starting level for Chris Thornley: 2,406, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,821, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Stuart Lipscombe to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Chris Thornley.

Stuart Lipscombe won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Lipscombe played 10% better than Chris Thornley in this match.

As Stuart Lipscombe has played below his allowed range at 2,963, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Stuart Lipscombe would normally have been playing at level 3,590 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Thornley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.5% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe changes to -9.5% and Chris Thornley changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe becomes -3.9% and for Chris Thornley becomes +5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Suffolk Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe is -2.9% and for Chris Thornley is +4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Lipscombe: 92%, Chris Thornley: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Lipscombe: 76%, Chris Thornley: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Thornley: 2,501, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,708, level confidence: 76%.