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Keith Timms v Lee Jemmett (Fri 23 Mar 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 11-2,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 9,187, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lee Jemmett: 7,367, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Lee Jemmett.

Keith Timms won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 120% better than Lee Jemmett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Timms actually played at a level of 12,202 and Lee Jemmett at a level of 5,547. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to +29% and Lee Jemmett changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes +7.5% and for Lee Jemmett becomes -7.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Hertfordshire Senior League Cup 2017/18' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is +6.7% and for Lee Jemmett is -7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lee Jemmett is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 86%, Lee Jemmett: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 65%, Lee Jemmett: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Timms: 9,792, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Lee Jemmett: 7,006, level confidence: 65%.