Luke Dodington v Jahangir Hussain (Mon 12 Mar 2018)
Match won by Jahangir Hussain. Result: 15-10,7-15,5-15,16-14,3-15.
Starting level for
Luke Dodington:
4,477, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jahangir Hussain:
4,516, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Jahangir Hussain to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Luke Dodington.
Jahangir Hussain won 60% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jahangir Hussain played
20% better than Luke Dodington in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jahangir Hussain actually played at a level of
4,926 and Luke Dodington at a level of
4,105. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain changes to +9% and Luke Dodington changes to -8.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain becomes +3.6% and for Luke Dodington becomes -3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain is +2.7% and for Luke Dodington is -2.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jahangir Hussain: 84%, Luke Dodington: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jahangir Hussain: 77%, Luke Dodington: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Luke Dodington:
4,359, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Jahangir Hussain:
4,630, level confidence: 77%.