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Jahangir Hussain v Richard Campbell (Thu 15 Mar 2018)

Match won by Richard Campbell. Result: 8-15,13-15,15-9,11-15.

Starting level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,602, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richard Campbell: 7,028, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Richard Campbell to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Jahangir Hussain.

Richard Campbell won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Campbell played 22% better than Jahangir Hussain in this match.

As Richard Campbell has played below his allowed range at 5,908, his level reduction is 5.5% before damping. On the assumption that Richard Campbell would normally have been playing at level 6,663 (based on typical behaviour), Jahangir Hussain played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 7.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Campbell changes to -4.1% and Jahangir Hussain changes to +7.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Campbell becomes -1.9% and for Jahangir Hussain becomes +3.1%.

Given Richard Campbell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Richard Campbell is -1.3% and for Jahangir Hussain is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Campbell: 87%, Jahangir Hussain: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Campbell: 78%, Jahangir Hussain: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,700, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Richard Campbell: 6,925, level confidence: 78%.