Russell Lewis v Steven Davies (Thu 08 Mar 2018)
Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 5-15,4-15,7-15.
Starting level for
Russell Lewis:
2,137, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for
Steven Davies:
8,076, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing
278% better than Russell Lewis.
Steven Davies won all of the games and 74% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Davies played
181% better than Russell Lewis in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Steven Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,351 and 8,076 without affecting his level.
In this case, Steven Davies played at level 6,010 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Russell Lewis is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 87%, Russell Lewis: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 75%, Russell Lewis: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Russell Lewis:
2,134, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Steven Davies:
8,064, level confidence: 75%.