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Ramy Ashour v Gregory Gaultier (Sat 17 Mar 2018)

Match won by Ramy Ashour. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Ramy Ashour: 58,649, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 64,071, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Ramy Ashour.

Ramy Ashour won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ramy Ashour played 52% better than Gregory Gaultier in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ramy Ashour actually played at a level of 75,489 and Gregory Gaultier at a level of 49,778. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ramy Ashour changes to +27% and Gregory Gaultier changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ramy Ashour becomes +5% and for Gregory Gaultier becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ramy Ashour: 83%, Gregory Gaultier: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ramy Ashour: 64%, Gregory Gaultier: 67%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ramy Ashour: 61,354, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 62,825, level confidence: 67%.