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Stuart Lipscombe v Danny Markham (Thu 15 Mar 2018)

Match won by Stuart Lipscombe. Result: 13-11,8-11,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,824, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Danny Markham: 3,170, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Stuart Lipscombe to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Danny Markham.

Stuart Lipscombe won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Lipscombe played 21% better than Danny Markham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Lipscombe actually played at a level of 3,831 and Danny Markham at a level of 3,164. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe changes to 0% and Danny Markham changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe becomes +0.1% and for Danny Markham becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Suffolk Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe is 0% and for Danny Markham is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Lipscombe: 86%, Danny Markham: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Lipscombe: 86%, Danny Markham: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,821, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Danny Markham: 3,163, level confidence: 86%.