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Marcus Hayes v Neil Staunton (Mon 12 Mar 2018)

Match won by Neil Staunton. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-7,4-11,8-11.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,786, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Neil Staunton: 5,884, level confidence: 51%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Neil Staunton.

Neil Staunton won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Staunton played 10% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Staunton actually played at a level of 7,539 and Marcus Hayes at a level of 6,857. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Staunton changes to +22% and Marcus Hayes changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Staunton becomes +6.8% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -5.6%.

Given Neil Staunton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.7% has been applied to his level change.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Neil Staunton is +4.9% and for Marcus Hayes is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Staunton: 72%, Marcus Hayes: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Staunton: 56%, Marcus Hayes: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,597, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Neil Staunton: 6,164, level confidence: 56%.