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Rex Hedrick v Ammar Altamimi (Wed 07 Mar 2018)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 13-11,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 31,868, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Ammar Altamimi: 24,000, level confidence: 68%.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Ammar Altamimi.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 49% better than Ammar Altamimi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rex Hedrick actually played at a level of 33,742 and Ammar Altamimi at a level of 22,667. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 5.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to +5.1% and Ammar Altamimi changes to -3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes +1.6% and for Ammar Altamimi becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Tour No6' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 68%, Ammar Altamimi: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 64%, Ammar Altamimi: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 32,194, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Ammar Altamimi: 23,800, level confidence: 78%.