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Keith Timms v Eamonn Price (Thu 08 Mar 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 13-15,12-10,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 9,280, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Eamonn Price: 6,978, level confidence: 61%.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Eamonn Price.

Keith Timms won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 21% better than Eamonn Price in this match.

As Keith Timms has played below his allowed range at 8,598, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 9,038 (based on typical behaviour), Eamonn Price played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to -1.5% and Eamonn Price changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes -0.8% and for Eamonn Price becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Hertfordshire Senior League Cup 2017/18' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is -0.7% and for Eamonn Price is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 85%, Eamonn Price: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 81%, Eamonn Price: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Timms: 9,202, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Eamonn Price: 7,071, level confidence: 75%.