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Paul Stroud v Jaymie Haycocks (Tue 06 Mar 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 9-11,9-11,3-11.

Starting level for Paul Stroud: 7,064, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 20,121, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 185% better than Paul Stroud.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 56% better than Paul Stroud in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jaymie Haycocks was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,268 and 20,121 without affecting his level.

As Jaymie Haycocks has played below his allowed range at 11,159, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Jaymie Haycocks would normally have been playing at level 15,550 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Stroud played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 10.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to -0.5% and Paul Stroud changes to +10.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -0.2% and for Paul Stroud becomes +3.6%.

Given Jaymie Haycocks's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Paul Stroud's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks is 0% and for Paul Stroud is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 86%, Paul Stroud: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 63%, Paul Stroud: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Stroud: 7,230, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 20,068, level confidence: 63%.