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James Barlow v Steven Davies (Mon 05 Mar 2018)

Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 13-15,15-10,15-11,11-15,8-15.

Starting level for James Barlow: 7,037, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steven Davies: 8,027, level confidence: 63%.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 14% better than James Barlow.

Steven Davies won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Davies played 9% better than James Barlow in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steven Davies actually played at a level of 7,851 and James Barlow at a level of 7,195. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Davies changes to -2.1% and James Barlow changes to +1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Davies becomes -1.1% and for James Barlow becomes +1%.

Given Steven Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Barlow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Bedfordshire League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Steven Davies is -0.7% and for James Barlow is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 79%, James Barlow: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 78%, James Barlow: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Barlow: 7,075, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Steven Davies: 7,956, level confidence: 78%.