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Ed Blowers v Barrie McLelland (Mon 05 Mar 2018)

Match won by Barrie McLelland. Result: 8-11,13-11,11-8,9-11,4-11.

Starting level for Ed Blowers: 1,072, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for Barrie McLelland: 1,877, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Barrie McLelland to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Ed Blowers.

Barrie McLelland won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barrie McLelland played 11% better than Ed Blowers in this match.

As Barrie McLelland has played below his allowed range at 1,356, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Barrie McLelland would normally have been playing at level 1,719 (based on typical behaviour), Ed Blowers played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland changes to -4.3% and Ed Blowers changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland becomes -2.9% and for Ed Blowers becomes +8.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Barrie McLelland is -2.2% and for Ed Blowers is +6.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barrie McLelland: 90%, Ed Blowers: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barrie McLelland: 72%, Ed Blowers: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ed Blowers: 1,138, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Barrie McLelland: 1,835, level confidence: 72%.